GRA maintains a Central Registry of published
literature in the political risk field, broadly defined: books,
magazine and journal articles, as well as proceedings and doctoral
dissertations.
The GRA Lit Review registry is intended to provide a
ready reference on an ongoing basis for the benefit of all parties.
Some of the citations are annotated and various review-ers are
credited. We welcome input and feedback on this registry and hope
that it is useful to you.
If you are aware of relevant literature that is not cited herein please notify
us. Our desire is to provide a comprehensive listing of all literature on a
global basis and to record it in the language of origin as well as in English.
GRA is also citing articles that were included in Risk Management
Review (RMR), the quarterly newsletter of the Council for International
Business Risk Management (CIBRM), the professional association for the political
risk field (the Council was previously known as the Association of Political
Risk Analysts (APRA) until a name change in 1990). Unfortunately, CIBRM went
defunct in 1995; however, GRA has many of these newsletters as well as
some APRA conference proceedings on file.
Please make a note of the date of the GRA Lit Review you are viewing
to make sure you are accessing the most current version.
Boucher, Michel, Ephraim Clark an Bertrand Groslambert, Country
Risk Assessment, London: John Wiley, forthcoming 2003.
"The New Bull Market," The Economist, May
24, 2003, p77.
Clark, Ephraim and K. Kassimatis, "Country Financial Risk and Stock Market
Performance: The Case of Latin America," Journal of Economics
and Business, forthcoming 2003.
Clark, Ephraim and R. Tunaru, "Qualification of Political Risk and Multiple
Dependent Sources," Journal of Economics and Finance,
Vol 27, no 1 (2003), pp 1-11.
Clark, Ephraim, "Pricing the Cost of Expropriation Risk,"
Review of International Economics, vol 11, no 2, 2003, pp 412-422.
For current books in the field of international finance including investment
and credit risk access:
Blumentritt, T.P., et. al., “The Integration of Subsidiary Political
Activities in Multinational Corporations,” Journal of International
Business Studies, 2002, 57.
Clark, Ephraim and G. Lakshmi, "Controlling the Risk: A Case Study of
the Indian Liquidity Crisis 1990-92," Journal of International
Development, 14, 2002, pp 1-14.
Campell, A. "The Private Sector and Conflict Prevention Mainstreaming,
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy," Carleton University, Canada, 2002
Janeba, Eckhard, “Attracting FDI in a Politically Risky World.”
International Economic Review, November, 2002, 1127.
Ellstrand, Alan E., “Board Structure and International Political Risk,”
Academy of Management Journal, August, 2002, 769.
Asche, Frank, “European Market Integration for Gas? Volume Flexibility
and Political Risk,” Energy Economics, May,
2002, 249.
Harms, Philipp, “Poverty and Political Risk,” Review
of International Economics, May, 2002, 250.
Bilson, Christopher M., “The Explanatory Power of Political Risk in Emerging
Markets,”International Review of Financial Analysis,
2002,
Coplin, William D., Editor; O’Leary, Michael K., The Handbook
of Country and Political Risk Analysis, East Syracuse: P R S Group,
LLC
2001:
“Symposium: the Impact of Developing Economies and Economies in Transition
on the Future of International Business.” Journal of International
Business Studies, 2001, 1.
Poirson, Helene, “How Do Countries Choose Their Exchange Rate Regime?”
International Monetary Fund Working Paper, April,
2001.
Cherian, Joseph A, “Option Pricing and Foreign Investment Under Political
Risk,” Journal of International Economics, December,
2001, 359.
Kim, Harold Y. “What Makes the Market Jump? An Analysis of Political
Risk on Hong Kong Stock Returns,” Journal of International
Money and Finance, Kidlington, December, 2001, 1003.
Clark, Ephraim and R. Runaru, "Emerging Markets: Investing with Political
Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, vol 5,
no 3, 2001, pp 155-173.
Oetzel, Jennifer M., “Country Risk Measures: How Risky are They?”
Journal of World Business, Summer. 2001,128.
Clark, Ephraim, M. H. Bouchet and B. Groslambert, "Revisiting the Asian
Financial Crisis: Were Capital Markets Caught by Surprise?" International
Journal of Finance, vol 13, no 2,, 2001.
Perotti, Enrico C., “Privatization, Political Risk and Stock Market Development
in Emerging Economies,” Journal of International Money and
Finance, February, 2001, 43.
Frederick, Rick, “Captains in a Sea of Danger: CEOs as Navigators of
Risk.” (Panel Discussion), The Chief Executive,
August, 2001, page(s)9.
Clark, Ephraim with A. Zenaidi, "The quantitification of Country Risk:
Effects on Sovereign Debt Discount," Finance India,
Sept 2001, pp 805-820.
Brouthers, Keith D., “Explaining the National Cultural Distance Paradox,”
Journal of International Business Studies, First Quarter,
2001, 177.
Abrahams, D. "Ideal Management: Social and Ethical Risks in Reputation,"
Marsh Risk Consulting, 2001.
Martins, Luis F., “Managing Market Risk for an Emerging Market Debt Portfolio,”Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter 2001, 75.
Llewellyn Howell, Editor, Political Risk Assessment: Concept, Method,
and Management, (CCM), PRS Group Inc. 2001, PRS Group, 2001.
Tomz, Michael Robert, “Sovereign Debt and International Cooperation:
Reputational Reasons for Lending and Repayment,” Doctoral Dissertation,
Harvard University, 2001.
Llewellyn Howell, Editor, The Handbook of Country and Political
Risk Analysis, (HCPR), 3rd Edition, The PRS Group, 2001.
2000:
Rarick, Charles A., “Determinants and Assessment of Political Risk in
Central America,” S.A.M. Advanced Management Journal,
Summer, 2000, 41.
Ramcharran, Harri, “Foreign Direct Investments in Central and Eastern
Europe: An Analysis of Regulatory and Country Risk Factors,” American
Business Review, June, 2000, 1.
Wilkin, Sam, "Why Political Risk is Important to You: And Eight Tips on
How to Deal with It," World Trade, March 2000,
pp 40-44.
Clark, Ephraim, "Agency Conflict and the Signaling Snafu in the Mexican
Peso Conflict in 1994," International Journal of Public Administration,
vol 23, no 5-8, 2000, pp 837-876.
Treisman, Daniel, “The Causes of Corruption: A Cross-national Study,”
Journal of Public Economics, June, 2000; 399.
Valance, Nikos, “Defusing Global Bond Risk. (political risk insurance),”
CFO, Magazine for Senior Financial Executives, May,
2000.
McDermott, Rose, “Foreign Policy Decision-Making: A Qualitative and Quantitative
Analysis of Political Argumentation. & Collective Choice Processes: A Qualitative
and Quantitative ..Foreign Policy Decision-Making: A Qualitative and Quantitative
Analysis of Political Argumentation. By Irmtraud Gallhofer and Willem Saris.
Westport,.From American Political Science Review,
March 01 2000 by Page(s): 4
Lensink, Robert, “Capital flight and political risk,” Journal
of International Money and Finance, February, 2000, 73.
Harris, James W., “Weighing Emerging Market Risk: The Supply of Capital,”
Business Economics, January, 2000, Page(s) 8
Meldrum, Duncan H., “Country Risk and Foreign Direct Investment,”
Business Economics, January, 2000,
Page(s) 9.
Feils, Dorothee J., “The Impact of Political Risk on the Foreign Direct
Investment Decision: A Capital Budgeting Analysis,” ; The
Engineering Economist, 2000, 129.
Collier, Paul, Pattillo, Catherine, eds. “Investment and Risk in Africa,”
Studies on the African Economies, 2000.
Altug, Sumuru G.; Demers, Fanny S.; Demers, Michel, “Political Risk and
Irreversible Investment: Theory and an Application to Quebec,” CEPR
Discussion Paper, March, 2000.
Min, Kee, “Does Foreign Government Policy Matter? The Case of United
States Direct Investment Abroad,” Doctoral Dissertation, University of
Kentucky, 2000.
1999:
Meldrum, Duncan H., “Country Risk and a Quick Look at Latin America:
How to Analyze Exchange Risk, Economic Policy Risk and Institutional Risk,”
Business Economics, July, 1999, Page(s): 9.
Hamilton, Robert D. III, “National Influences on Multinational Corporation
Control System Selection,” Management International Review,
Second Quarter, 1999, 167.
Ramcharran, Harri, “Foreign Direct Investment and Country Risk: Further
Empirical Evidence,” Global Economic Review
1999, 49
Clark, Ephraim with A. Zenaidi, "Sovereign Debt Discounts and the Unwillingness
to Pay," Finance, vol 20, no 2, 1999, pp 185-199.
“Country Risk Analysis: Western Europe and Belgium“ Anonymous;
Credit Control, Hutton, 1999, 22.
Clark, Ephraim, "Political Risk in Hong Kong and Taiwan: Pricing the China
Factor," Journal of Economic Integration, 13,
no 2, 1998, pp 278-293.
Perotti, Enrico C. and van Oijen, Pieter. “Privatization, Political Risk
and Stock Market Development,” Centre for Economic Policy
Research, September, 1999.
Cameron, Maxwell, “Interpreting NAFTA: The Science and Art of Political
Analysis (book review),” American Political Science Review,
September, 1999, page(s) 2.
Clark, Ephraim, "Valuing Political Risk as an Insurance Policy,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 1997,
pp 477-490.
Morrison, Dennis, “Risk Management of External Assets and Liabilities:
The Case of Nigeria,” Doctoral Dissertation, University of La Verne, 1999.
Lupton, Deborah, The Nature, Estimation and Management of Political
Risk, Quorum, 1999.
1998:
Kleinschmidt, Volker, and Wagner, Dieter, Strategic Environmental Assessment
in Europe: 4th European Workshop on Environmental Impact Assessment,
Kluwer Academic Publishers, October, 1998.
Moran, Theodore H., Managing International Political Risk,
Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers, Inc., 1998.
Gasiorowski, Mark J., “Macroeconomic Conditions and Political Instability:
An Empirical Analysis,” Studies in Comparative International Development,
Fall, 1998, 3.
Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, “Political Instability, Human Capital, and
Economic Growth in Latin America,” The Journal of Developing
Areas, Summer, 1998, 449.
Hadjikhani, Amjad, “Political Risk for Project-selling Firms: Turbulence
in Relationships Between Business and Non-business Actors,” The
Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 1998, 235.
Mayer, Frederick W., Interpreting NAFTA: The Science and Art of Political Analysis,
Columbia University Press, 1998. 374p.
MOSLEH, MAJID (MICHAEL), “Political Risk and the State: Toward an Integrative
Model of Political Risk Assessment for the Middle East,” Doctoral Dissertation,
University of Southern California, 1998.
Ferris, Stephen P.; Thompson, G. Rodney; Valsan, Calin, “An Analysis
of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America: The Case of the Guyanese Economy,”
Pakistan Economic and Social Review, Summer, 1997,
11.
Borde, Stephen F.; Hofer, Lloyd W., Jr., “Corporate Risk Shifts Associated
with Establishment of International Joint Ventures,” RISEC:
International Review of Economics and Business, June, 1997, 361.
Bookstaber, Richard, "Global Risk Management: Are We Missing the Point?"
The Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 1997,
pp 102-107.
Clark, Ephraim, “Valuing Political Risk,” Journal of
International Money and Finance, June, 1997, 477.
Mueller, James D., “Perceptions of Foreign Investment Risk in Central
and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union,” International
Journal of Management, December, 1997, 598.
Sinn, Hans-Werner, “Foreign Direct Investment, Political Resentment and
the Privatization Process in Eastern Europe,” Economic Policy,
April, 1997, 177.
Rajan, Murli, “An Examination of the Impact of Country Risk on the International
Portfolio Selection Decision,” Global Finance Journal,
Spring/Summer, 1997, 55.
Stevens, Flumo Y., “Quantative Perspective on Political Risk Analysis
for Direct Foreign Investment—A Closer Look,” Multinational
Business Review, Spring, 1997, 77.
Ferris, Stephen P.; Thompson, G. Rodney; Valsan, Calin, “An Analysis
of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America: The Case of the Guyanese Economy,”
Pakistan Economic and Social Review, Summer, 1997,
11.
1996:
Erb, Claude B., “Political Risk, Economic Risk, and Financial Risk,”
Financial Analysts Journal, November/December, 1996,
29.
Werner, Steve, “International Risk and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty:
The Dimensionality and Internal Consistency of Miller’s Measure,”
Journal of International Business Studies, Third Quarter,
1996, 571.
Diamonte, Robin L., “Political Risk in Emerging and Developed Markets,”
Financial Analysts Journal, May/June, 1996, 71.
Au, Alan K. M.; Chan, Allan K. K.; Wai-sum Sui; Tse, Alan C. B., “Forecasting
Political Systems Stability: A Study on the People’s Republic of China,”
International Journal of Management, March, 1996,
60.
Manrai, Lalita A., “Eastern Europe’s Transition to a Market Economy:
An analysis of Economic and Political Risks,” Journal of Euro
- Marketing, 1996, 7.
Jing, Chao, “The Politcal Economy of Multinational Corporations and International
Relations,” Doctoral
Dissertation, University of Colorado at Boulder, 1996.
Turnbull, Desna Rosemarie, “The Influence of Political Risk Events on
the Investment Decisions of Multinational Hotel Companies in Caribbean Hotel
Projects,” Doctoral Dissertation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
University, 1996.
Gur, Timur Han, “Esternal Debt and Empirical Models for Country Risk
Assessment,“ Doctoral Dissertation, State University of New York at Albany,
1995.
Jackson, Olivia, “An Assessment of United States Foreign Direct Investment
amid Violence in Columbia,“ Doctoral Dissertation, University of Miami,
1995.
Merchant, Hemant, “A Strategic Analysis of the Expected Performance of
United States Firms Participating in International Joint Ventures,“ Doctoral
Dissertation, Purdue University, 1995. 1996:
"A New Political Risk", Oil and Gas Journal, 94(6),
1996, PP. 25-26
"Country Risk: Three Years of Growth", Euromoney,
5, 1996, pp. 113-123.
"Economic and Financial Statistics on 25 Emerging Markets, Plus a Closer
Look at Country-risk Ratings", The Economist, 340 (7982),
1996, p 118.
"Features: EIU Country Risk Ratings", Business Latin America,
31 (6), 1996., p 4.
"Financial Planner-Tourist Attraction-Political Risk may be declining
in emerging markets, but other concerns could pose bigger problems,"
Financial World, 165 (10), 1996, pp. 78-83.
"Peru: Mr. Fujimori's Concentration of Power Could Add to Political
Risk," Business Latin America, 31 (2), 1996, p 1.
"Political Risk: In the Price?" , Investors Chronicle,
115 (1464), 1996, pp. 24-27
"Political Risk in OPEC Countries,", Middle East International,
(518), 1996, p. 17
"Three Pages of Economic and Financial Statistics on 15 OECD Countries
and 25 Emerging Markets, Plus Closer Looks at Commodities, Budget Balances,
Current Accounts and Country Risk Ratings", The Economist,
338 7947), 1996, pp 98-100.
Clark, Ephrai and Bernard Marois, Managing Risk in International Business:
Techniques and Applications, London: International Thomson Business
Press, 1996.
Dave, Sandeep B., "Political Risk in India: The Dabhol-Enron Saga,"
Journal of International Banking Law, 11 (2), 1996, pp. 74-78.
Diamonte, Robin L., John M. Liew and Ross L. Stevens, "Political Risk
in Emerging and Developed Markets,", Financial Analysts Journal,
52 (3), 1996, pp. 71-76.
Erb, Claude B., Campbell Harvey and Tada E. Viskanta, "The Influence
of Political, Economic, and Financial Risk on Expected Fixed-Income Returns",
The Journal of Fixed Income, 6 (1), 1996, pp. 7-31
Gruy, H. J. and J. H. Hartsock, "Political Risk in Fair Market Value
Estimates", Petroleum Engineer International, 69 (9), 1966,
pp 57-60.
Ojala, Marydee, "The Dollar Sign-Using Databases to Determine Political
Risk," Database, 19 (2), 1996, pp 80-83.
Pate-Cornell, M. Elisabeth, "Global Risk Management", Journal
or Risk and Uncertainty, 12 (2-3), 1996, pp. 239-256.
Pahud de Mortanges, Charles and Vivian Allers, "Political Risk Assessment:
Theory and Practice of Dutch Firms", International Business Review,
5 (3), 1996, pp. 303- 3l8.
Sadgrove, Kit, The Complete Guide to Business Risk Management, Gower,
Aldershot, 1996.
Erb, Claude B., “Political Risk, Economic Risk, and Financial Risk,”
Financial Analysts Journal, November/December, 1996, 29.
Werner, Steve, “International Risk and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty:
The Dimensionality and Internal Consistency of Miller’s Measure,”
Journal of International Business Studies, Third Quarter, 1996, 571.
Au, Alan K. M.; Chan, Allan K. K.; Wai-sum Sui; Tse, Alan C. B., “Forecasting
Political Systems Stability: A Study on the People’s Republic of China,”
International Journal of Management, March, 1996, 60.
Manrai, Lalita A., “Eastern Europe’s Transition to a Market
Economy: An analysis of Economic and Political Risks,” Journal of
Euro - Marketing, 1996, 7.
Jing, Chao, “The Politcal Economy of Multinational Corporations and
International Relations,” Doctoral
Dissertation, University of Colorado at Boulder, 1996.
Turnbull, Desna Rosemarie, “The Influence of Political Risk Events
on the Investment Decisions of Multinational Hotel Companies in Caribbean
Hotel Projects,” Doctoral Dissertation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute
and State University, 1996.
1995:
Gur, Timur Han, “Esternal Debt and Empirical Models for Country Risk
Assessment,“ Doctoral Dissertation, State University of New York at
Albany, 1995.
Jackson, Olivia, “An Assessment of United States Foreign Direct Investment
amid Violence in Columbia,“ Doctoral Dissertation, University of Miami,
1995.
Thaysen, Karin, “An Analysis of Agricultural Risk Implications of United
States Policy Changes,“ Doctoral Dissertation, Texas A&M University,
0803.
Merchant, Hemant, “A Strategic Analysis of the Expected Performance
of United States Firms Participating in International Joint Ventures,“
Doctoral Dissertation, Purdue University, 1995.
"Mexico - Economic Policy is not Invulnerable to Political Risk",
Business Latin America, 30 (41), 1995, p. 1.
"No Haven from Political Risk", Investors Chronicle,
114 (1447), 1995, pp. 30-31.
"Political Risk to the Fore," Investors Chronicle,
111 (1415), 1995, pp. 28-29.
Alesina, Alberto and Robert Perotti, "Economic Risk and Political Risk
in Fiscal Unions" Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper Series No. 4992,
1995
Bailey, Warren and Y. Peter Chung, "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Political
Risk and Stock Returns: Some Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal
of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30 (4), 1995, pp. 541-562.
Bowman, Robert J., "Are You Covered?" World Trade,
March 1995, pp 100104.
Cantor, Richard and Frank Packer, "Sovereign Credit Ratings,"
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, June 1995..
Cheung, Y.L. and C. K. Shum, "International Stock Exchange Listings
and the Reduction of Political Risk," Managerial and Decision Economics,
16 (5), 1995, pp. 537-546.
Coplin, William D. and Michael K. O'Leary, "The 1995-2000 World Political
Risk Forecast: On the Threshold of the 21st Century: A Surprising Wealth of
Business Opportunities", Planning Review, 23 (2), 1995,
pp.36-44.
Cosset, Jean-Claude and JeanMarc Suret, "Political Risk and the Benefits
of International Portfolio Diversification," Journal of International
Business Studies, Vol. 26, No 2, pp 301318. (Laura Rutherford, student,
AGSIM)
Portfolio investment in the stock markets of politically risky countries can
reduce portfolio risk. Diversification of an investment portfolio among developed
countries may not reduce portfolio risk since the markets of developed countries
are closely linked and tend to move in tandem. On the other hand emerging
markets are not highly correlated with each other nor with developed markets.
Investors may be deterred from investing in emerging markets by the perceived
risk. Some portfolio investors are concerned about political risk events affecting
repatriation of funds through capital controls. However, political risk can
be diversified in an international portfolio.
Using monthly political risk ratings from the Political Risk Letter,
put out by Political Risk Services, the authors constructed ex-post and ex-ante
portfolio strategies to assess the gains from international diversification.
It should be noted that developing countries and countries with high political
risk are not always one in the same in this model. Both tests revealed that
diversifying portfolio investment into countries with high political risk
improves portfolio return. In addition, by investing in both high and low
political risk countries an investor may reduce portfolio volatility. Since
the correlation between high and how political risk matters is low, diversification
reduces overall volatility. Investors may also benefit from diversifying into
medium risk countries.
Hutchin, James W. "Currency Exposures: Lessons Learned in Mexico",
Risk Management, July 1, 1995.
Vertzberger, Yaacov, "Rethinking and Reconceptualizing Risk in Foreign
Investment", Political Psychology, June 1, 1995.
Smith, Jr., Fred L., "Assessing the Political Approach to Risk Management",
Economic Affairs, 16 (l), 1995, pp 11-14.
Stapenhurst, Frederick, "Political Risk Analysis in North American
Multinationals: An Empirical Review and Assessment", The International
Executive, 37 (2), 1995, pp. 127-146.
Stites, John, "Going Forward with Global Investments", Risk
Management, Nov 1, 1995.
Sundaram, Anant K. and J. Stewart Black, The International Business
Environment: Text and Cases, New Jersey, Prentice Hall, 1995.(Dr.
Mike P. McKeever, Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Business Administration,
Armstrong University, Berkeley, CA opinions expressed strictly his own, not
the University).
Professors Sundaram (Michigan and Dartmouth) and Black (Thunderbird Graduate
School) take an aggressive approach to explaining exactly how a large global
company can be run. The book shows well-educated global managers a number
of areas where a multinational company can take advantage of legal and political
lapses in the international arena. For example, Chapter 8 includes a discussion
on "The void at the Intersection of Sovereign Boundaries" as well
as a detailed listing of exactly what various international regulatory bodies
can accomplish.
The book takes an aggressive free trade position. It does not address any
of today's discussions about whether the current fashion of economic efficiency
at any cost is good for everyone or whether the drive for the lowest costs
may hurt some people in the short run. As such, it supports the misleading
impression that Free Trade is Okey Dokey and everything will be fine with
more and more growth. By ignoring this, the authors implicitly support those
trans-national corporations which seek to avoid or minimize the effects of
sovereign national governments' attempts at regulating their activities.
While the book includes a Chapter on ethics and social responsibility, I wonder
whether a new manager might brush past those inconvenient topics to get to
the "good stuff." In their defense, the case material, especially
Dow Chemical and Bhopal, does address practical ethics in great detail.
The book is densely written and fast-paced with excruciatingly exhaustive
detail in some areas while other areas just barely brush the surface of complex
topics. I have some disagreements with the selection of case material. The
cases and documentation Professors Sundaram and Black use exclusively are
from large, Multi National Enterprises or MNE's (their term) and introduce
so much detail that the overall point tends to get lost in the facts. Perhaps
some cases from smaller companies that focus on a single issue would be more
helpful to undergraduate students or the more casual reader. As the book stands,
it requires a high level of background and prior experience for the reader
to fully comprehend. For qualified readers it is an excellent book; however,
the requires lots of explanation for the newer student of international business.
One of the book's strengths lies in its treatment of Country and Political
Risk Analysis covered in Chapters 10 and 11. These chapters should be read
together to get the full flavor of the topic. I especially liked their approach
to country risk analysis in Chapter 10. The authors take a broad view of a
country's overall economic position and somehow manage to make theory interesting.
Their cover age includes values, physical resources, country goals, country
policies, political context and institutional context. This Chapter includes
sample country risk analyses of both China and Japan; it closes with an exhaustive
study of Nike's negotiations for a venture in China. I was impressed also
with Chapter 11's political risk discussion because it ends with a step-by-step
methodology for deciding when a company should think about packing its bags
and leaving town. A small disappointment, I was hoping for a summary example
or two to illustrate the ideas, but got a lengthy and complicated case instead
(Gulfstream and Sukhoi).
Telesio, Piero, "China: Five Scenarios for Managing Risks", Planning
Review, January 1, 1995.
1994:
"Organized Crime and Fraud have Supplanted Terrorism as a Major Risk
for Multinational Companies, A Political Risk Consultant Say", Business
Insurance, 28 (53), 1994, p.39.
Avasthi, David D., "Political Risk and the Euphoria
of Emerging Markets," Risk Management, July
1994, Vol. 41, #7, pp 6369. (Nick Emmack, student, AGSIM)
Rapidly growing output, combined with 51% of the world population
with improving living standards, has made the emerging markets
consisting of geographical groups from South, East, and South
East Asia to South America and Central Europe, extremely attractive
to foreign corporations. This investing enthusiasm should, however,
be followed with precautionary measures to prevent massive losses.
Political risk remains high even though economic liberalization
massive privatization and structural adjustment, is occurring,
and sources of inflows are injected into the economy. This in-depth
transformation of the society is still inclined to impeding fears
that can turn an investment into a loosing proposition. As investors
in emerging market economies exist, investors should minimize
possible problems by conducting internal and external geopolitical,
marco and micro analysis, and an insurance overview. The macroanalysis
should be done with perspectives of different time frames, short,
medium and long term, viewing historical, political and social
factors. Corporate executives should not rely on a single political
risk analysis source, and their challenge will be in understanding
the parameters of outside studies which apply to their investing
countries. More over, no generalized approach should be used
when assessing a country.
Blank, Stephen, "The U.S. in the 21st Century,RMR,SpringSummer 1994, pp 110.
Cantor, Richard and Frank Packer, "The Credit Rating
Industry," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly
Review, Autumn/Winter 1994.
Chen, Yueh H. and W. T. Lin, "Poltical Risk and Adjusted
Present Value", International Journal of Systems Science,
25 (12), 1994, pp. 2207-2220.
Chew, Pat K., "Political Risk and US Investments in
China: Chimera of Protection and Predictability?", Virginia
Journal of World Business, 34 (3), 1994, pp 615-684.
Comeaux, Paul E., "Reducing Political Risk in Developing
Countries", New York Law School Journal, 1994.
Coplin, William D. and Michael K. O'Leary, "Annual Five-Year
Political Risk Forecast: The Mid-Nineties: Small Wars, Economic
Flu, Currency Speculation, Political Upheaval, and Lost of Commercial
Opportunity", Planning Review, 22 (2), 1994,
p. 50.
Coplin, William D. and Michael K. O'Leary, Political
Risk Services: The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis,
East Syracuse, NY, Political Risk Services, 1994. (George Middeldorp,
Utrecht University)
The Company Political Risk Services has taken the welcome
initiative to publish an overview of all the methods sued by
the world's leading commercial suppliers of country and political
risk analysis. Although the handbook is primarily meant for the
academic world, it is also very useful for business people.
The ten chapters on the different methods are preceded by
a good concise introduction to what political risk means, how
to analyze it and next how to manage it. One shortcoming in the
introduction is the negligence, first, of political and societal
reactions in a company's home country to a certain investment
abroad and, second, of reactions in a third country, for example
the extra-territorial application of a trade ban (e.g. the Helms-Burton
Act). After the introduction, the various methods are described
extensively with practical applications and thus give a good
insight in how the political risk analyses come about. Each chapter,
however, is written by the respective company, which uses the
method, itself; therefore, the reader should not expect critical
analyses of the methods. Moreover, the handbook lacks a value-added
to the descriptions, namely a comparison of the methods with
regard to the factors included, scaling of factors, research
sources, research methods, costs, customer experiences. Nevertheless,
the handbook provides a lot of information, which companies can
use in assessing the international business investment environment.
Fatehi, Kamal, "Capital Flight from Latin America as
a Barometer of Political Instability," Journal of
Business Research, June 1994.
The author defined the variables associated with capital flight
and political instability. Occurrences of capital flight were
observed for the period 19541982, which was measured by analyzing
the records of American bank deposits by residents of 17 Latin
American countries as reported by the U.S. Treasury Department.
The author hypothesized that: "Political instability influences
capital flight from Latin America to the U.S." Through statistical
analysis, including contemporaneous and lagged multiple regression
modeling, it was determined that there is a direct relationship
among variables. Conclusion: There are ad vantages to using capital
flight for assessing political risk. First, the contemporaneous
and anticipatory responses of residents to political instability
may serve as an "early warning sign." Second, capital
flight data may be used to supplement other risk assessment techniques,
in order to provide a more balanced view of the forecasted risk.
Howell, Llewellyn D., "odels of Political Risk in Foreign
Investment", Columbia Journal of World Business,
Fall 1994.
O'Hara, Dean, "Target: CEO in Global Terms Kidnap and
Ransom is on the Rise," Risk Management,"
July 1994, pp 8387
Multinational companies now face serious security risks in almost
every major emerging business market as terrorism aimed at corporate
targets has been steadily rising. Insuring against kidnap and
ransom of executives and their families has become a necessity
for most large companies. Policies first appeared in the 1930s
the highly publicized Lindbergh baby kidnapping. Kidnap and ransom
policies often cover losses incurred by paying the ransom, the
hostage's salary for the period in which he or she is held, as
well as the costs associated with hiring an international security
and crisis consulting firm.
The single most important thing a company can do before a kidnapping,
or any other terrorist threat, is to make sure the company has
a crisis management team in place and that the team creates a
communications infrastructure to ensure immediate reporting of
an emergency, for the first few hours of a kidnapping are critical
for successful resolution. Key early decisions should not be
made by field managers but by corporate decision makers in consultation
with specialized consultants. The article cites other critical
issues and useful advice the company should consider related
to kidnapping threats and security vulnerabilities.
Sinclair, Paula and Richard Weinert, "How NAFTA Will
Change the North American Financial Services Market," RMR,
Fall 1993/Winter 1994, pp 16.
Sobell, Vladimir, "The New Russia: A Political Risk
Analysis," London, Economic Intelligence Unit,
1994.
Russell-Walling, Edward, "Are You Ready for South Africa?"
International Business, September 1994, pp 74-78.
The economic potential is enormous and the country needs foreign
investment to realize it. But the risks can't be smiled away.
Wells, "Oil and Political Risk - The Outlook for 1995",
Petroleum Times Energy Report, 14 (23), 1994, pp.
2-4.
1993:
"Have Political Risk Analyst's Got Asia's Number?",
Institutional Investor, May 1, 1993.
Comeaux, Paul E., "Political Risk and Petroleum Investment
in Russia", Currents: International Trade Law,
Summer 1993.
Fritz, Clyde, "Political Risk Insurance', Independent
Energy, Nov 1, 1993.
Hecht, Lawrence and Peter Morici, "Managing Risks in
Mexico," Harvard Business Review, JulyAugust
1993, Vol. 71, No 4 pp 3240. (John Pellizzetti, student AGSIM)
NAFTA alone cannot offset the problems that Mexico faces. There
will still be many problems, including: the condition of the
infrastructure, continued problems with corruption, environmental
messes, and a history of deep state involvement in the economy.
While manufacturing in Mexico faces certain risks, selling in
Mexico identifies another set of problems. Although the country
has 90 million citizens, their consumption capacity may be limited
and unpredictable due to the sharp disparity in incomes among
citizens. 10% of Mexico's current population is wealthy, 45%
are middle class, and the remaining population is poor.
Another possible point of risk, not clearly defined in NAFTA,
is the question of the adequacy of the Mexican legal system.
In 1990, the government of Mexico City refused to honor a contract
with a French company for the purchase of a water purification
system after the French company disclosed trade secrets that
it claimed could be passed on to competitors. NAFTA is to provide
some protection to investors and foreign companies by providing
access to international arbitration as a means of recourse; however,
it is not clear how these laws may be enforced other than withholding
trade benefits.
The country still has a long way to go to ameliorate its problems
with infrastructure. Not only are there the evident problems
of poor roads and ports, but there remains the complicated problem
of communications. There are a lack of faxes, phones, computers,
and the structure to support these devices. Companies are inhibited
from providing the level of service that they would like largely
due to delays in the mail and phone systems.
Although NAFTA will bring tremendous opportunity in Mexico there
are many underlying problems. Before companies from the United
States proceed with investments in Mexico, their particular industry
and company must be closely examined to determine risks and the
benefits. For some companies the risks may outweigh the benefits.
Hirsh, Michael, "Can You Really Quantify Political Risk?",
Institutional Investor, International, April 1,
1993.
Lucero, Robert,"Businesses Can Reduce Riot Risk"
Risk Management, March 1993
1992:
"Angola: Oil Firms at Risk", The Petroleum
Economist, December 1, 1992.
Chase, Scott, "The Commonwealth of Independent States:
Ripe for Business Development? RMR, Winter 1991-l992.
pp 1-2.
Chermak, J. M., "Political Risk Analysis: Past and Present",
Resources Policy, September 1, 1992.
Cosset, Jean-Claude, "Evaluating Country Risk: A Decision
Support Approach", Global Finance Journal,
Spring 1992.
Gonzalez, Manolet V., "Steering a Subsidiary Through
a Political Crisis", Risk Management, October
1, 1992.
Hashmi, M. Anaan and Turgut Guvenli, "Importance of
Political Risk Assessment Function in Multinational Corporations,"
Global Finance Journal, 1992 3(2), pp 137144. (Katherine
A. Johnson, student, AGSIM)
20% of U.S. Fortune 1000 industrial corporations which
had capital invested in production/extraction facilities located
in foreign countries were basis for study. Both MNCs with low
and high levels of overseas investment tend to rely more heavily
on external political risk assessments rather than internal.
MNC executives ranked significance of 14 specific risks on a
5-point scale. Import restrictions were ranked as the most significant
political risk and next most significant factor was unexpected
currency devaluation or revaluation. Prior theoretical models
of risk assessment usually ranked nationalization, expropriation
or confiscation of property as high risks to investors but the
executives in this study did not perceive these factors in the
same manner. The authors conclude that political risk assessment
will continue to be a valuable tool for MNCs, corporations will
increasingly rely on external assessment sources, and the two
causes anticipated to be the greatest source of political risk
in the future are repatriation and unilateral changes in the
rules by local government.
Howell, Llewellyn D., "Political Risk and Political
Risk Loss for Foreign Investment," The International
Executive, Volume 34 (6), November/December 1992, pp
485498. (Kurt Meier, student, AGSIM)
This article refers to The Economist, 1986,
"Countries in Trouble," (pp 2538). According to the
author some of The Economist methods are not fully
described. And, the theoretical underpinnings are not ever mentioned.
The author discussed the variables The Economistand their relative weights. To test the capability of The
Economist's model, researchers at the American Graduate
School of Informational Management and at the American University
created a "loss" indicator for the period following
the assessment (198791). The outcome showed that the correlation
was not significant. The largest correlation between any of the
predictor variables and subsequent losses was with "Strife
and war." The absence of solid data politically related
losses leaves the investor without a basis for determining the
accuracy of political risk projections.
The author's predictor variables and loss correlation results
are as follows:
Predictor Variables
Losses
Strife/war
r= .29
Bad neighbor
r= .12
Corruption
r= .09
Ethnic confrontation
r= .07
Authoritarianism
r= .07
Generals in power
r= .05
Illegitimacy
r= .04
Islamic fundamentalism
r= .11
Staleness
r=. 12
Urbanization
r= .16
Mahoney, P.F., "Protecting Overseas Operations,"
Risk Management, October 1992. (Kent de Groot,
student, AGSIM)
Risks receive three categorizations: low, medium, and high threats.
Medium threats were characterized as actions and events that
pose a serious danger to the company's personnel, facilities,
image, goals or means of production. A few of these threats include:
labor lock-ins, civil disturbances, sabotage, natural disasters,
or any type of attack against company human and physical assets.
The author recommends that to deter these threats, management
should create strict guidelines to be followed as well as form
a risk management team made up of several higher executives.
The risk managers should come out with a written plan for several
of these difference contingencies. The plan should include an
"intelligence capability" that would determine the
extent of any problem that may arise and the best probable solutions
for them. High threats include terrorist campaigns against the
company or outbreak of war or civil attack. A more detailed,
phased plan is recommended and is outlined in the article.
Solberg, Ronald L. ed. Country Risk Analysis: A Handbook,
London and New York, Routledge, 1992. (Dr. Stephen Blank, Americas
Society, based on review appearing in RMR, Spring/Summer
1994 issue)
The objective of Solberg's edited volume on country risk analysis
is ... practical. It aims to offer "a single source document
of state-of-the-art techniques, decision making methods and organizational
structures for country risk analysis...It is meant to assist
commercial banks, multinational corporations and other invest
ors charged with assessing international risk-reward ratios and
efficiency constructing and managing a portfolio of international
assets."
Solberg's volume delivers on his promise to produce a handbook
that covers a wide array of information on techniques and methods
of country risk assessment. As a handbook should, it contains
a lot of how-to-do-it material. Aside from a few chapters like
Mike Herberg's (ARCO) on foreign direct investment in the upstream
petroleum industry, most of the volume deals with topics such
as "the analysis of country reports and checklists,"
"current-account forecasting," "external financing
and debt analysis," and "empirical models of debt rescheduling
with sovereign immunity."
One cannot sum up a volume handbook like this. For the most part,
the authors are academic economists or practitioners in financial
service firms or international organizations. The articles are
relatively brief, to the point, and, within the limits of academic
style, comprehensible. ...what is interesting, at least for those
of us who began in the early days of political risk analysis,
is the very modest level of interest in politics. His book represents
well, for better or worse, the emergence of a new generation
of country risk analysts with a sharply quantitative orientation.
Stapenhurst, Frederick, Political Risk Analysis Around
the North Atlantic, New York, St. Martin's Press, 1992.
(Dr. Stephen Blank, Americas Society, based on review appearing
in RMR , Spring/Summer 1994 edition).
Stapenhurst's book is a more traditional overview of political
risk analysis, looking in particular at the function in three
different home country contexts as it evolved and is carried
out in American, Canadian, and Western European corporations.
This book, which began as a doctoral dissertation and continues
to read a bit like a survey of the literature, reviews developments
in political risk analysis in the 1970s and 1980s. It looks in
particular at the reasons for the failure of political risk analysis
"to deliver on its earlier promise." The author examines
these reasons and suggests ways in which the relevance of risk
assessments can be enhanced.
Stapenhurst begins by underlining his belief that "a corporation's
strategic planning is an important determination of its profitability
and that environmental scanning, including political risk analysis,
is a vital input into this strategic planning process."
Nonetheless, in the 1980s various MNCs disbanded their political
risk functions or incorporated these functions into other staff
activities. Why? Stapenhurst offers three fairly familiar reasons:
the failure in many companies to incorporate political risk analysis
adequately into corporate decision-making, with the result that
it remained an ivory tower exercise; the increasing riskiness
of international business operations, with some retrenchment
by smaller firms; and the profit squeeze experienced by many
corporations, which led them to cut back on many staff functions.
Stapenhurst is optimistic, however, that there is "a favorable
future for this corporate function, especially given the current
and anticipated changes in the global political, economic and
business environments. What is to be done? For one, aim for a
closer link between risk assessment and risk management. Corporate
risk analysts have to be more involved with developing business
strategies. Political analysts should also be more concerned
with identifying opportunities as well as risks.
Wilson, Robert, "Managing Political Risk," Institutional
Investor, November 1992, pp 2324. (Stephen Vilaseca,
student, AGSIM)
Robert Wilson is the chief executive officer of London-based
RTZ Corp., an international mining and resources company with
5 billion pounds in annual sales and operations in more than
40 countries. He discusses political risks and how to manage
them. A summary outline of the main points of the article is
as follows:
The Change in Political Risk since the 1960s.
In the 1960s and 1970s, it was the risk of expropriation,
or that a government might unilaterally impose restrictions on
profit repatriation.
Today, political risk is much more about a company's interaction
with local communities, the degree to which the company can establish
good relationships with politicians and civil servants and the
way in which they respond to the investment plans of the company.
Political Risk Management
Don't make any political donations, because that would expose
you to risk if there were a change in government.
Establish intelligent, consistent and open relationships
with governments so that they are comfortable with you and see
you as a productive force rather then a secretive foreign investor
who might be up to all sorts of tricks.
Manage risk both at a group level and at a ground level.
The marco view of political risk is something that should be
developed at the corporate level, but the actual handling of
the relationships that mitigate the risks should very much be
the responsibility of the management on the ground.
The best way of managing risk is to make sure that you have
really high quality operations with near bottom of the curve
production costs.
Financing structures can limit exposures to political risk.
An offshore financing structure combined with the involvement
of equity participants and lenders from several countries creates
a broad range of firms and countries with a stake in the project
and provides implicit political insurance.
Investor's Fear of Political Risk Exposure
The investors' fear that companies with worldwide operations
are overly exposed to risk can be lessened by arguing that geographic
diversification and, in the case of RTZ Corp., experience mean
that these companies are less ex posed to political risk. They
have a broad geographic spread.
The U.S. investors' fear that they will be opening themselves
up to a foreign exchange risk is they buy stock in such companies
can be lessened by realizing that many of the revenues are denominated
in dollars.
Weiner, Benjamin, "What Executives Should Know About
Political Risk," Management Review, January
1992, pp 1920 (Clay Saunders, student, AGSIM)
The recent political changes (i.e. end of the Cold War) have
produced different rules to the investment game abroad. These
changes are forcing the U.S. business community to confront new
and confusing uncertainties. Companies are beginning to recognize
the impact of political issues and problems (i.e. war, corruption,
religious violence and ethnic conflict) upon international ventures.
The author alleges that "a surefire opportunity in a foreign
country can deteriorate into a tremendous headache affecting
the safety of personnel as well as of profits if political factors
are not measured and provided for along with traditional market
and investment perspectives."
Mr. Weiner maintains that the greatest potential for instability
within a country lies with the ethnic and religious composition
of the nation. Many of the conflicts attributed to struggles
between political groupings are in fact the result of ethnic
differences. Corporate executives need to be aware of the ethnic
distinctions because it affects specific operations as well as
general instability in a given country. It is paramount for executives
to identify these issues within a country and measure their impact
on political and economic stability.
1991:
Andrews, Craig, "Reflections on the Career Evolution
of a Business Risk Analyst," RMR, Fall 1991,
pp 4-5.
Cosset, Jean-Claude, "The Determinants of Country Risk
Ratings", Journal of International Business Statistics,
1991.
Guisinger, Stephen, "Investment Treaties and Risk,"
RMR, Fall 1991, p 6.
Kennedy, Jr., Charles R. Managing the International
Business Environment: Cases in Political and Country Risk,
Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1991.
Masch, Vladimir and Thomas Baker, "Risk Management with
Robust Optimization," RMR, Spring 1991, pp
3-4.
Pickard, Ann, "the Gulf Crisis and It's Aftermath,"
RMR, Spring 1991, pp 4-5.
Rubio, Luis, "The Politics of Free Trade in Mexico:
Impact on North America," RMR, Spring 1991,
pp 1-2.
Samuels, Barbara, "Country Risk Redefined: Positioning
for the '90s," RMR, Winter 1990/1991, pg 3.
Stapenhurst, Frederick, "Corporate Political Risk Analysis:
A Comparison of U.S. and European Approaches," Conference
Proceedings: "International Trade and Finance in the 1990s"
Marsaille, France, May 30-June 2, 1991, pp 1507-1518.
Political risk assessment (PRA) has emerged over the past
decade as an important component of strategic planning in multinational
corporations (MNCs). This paper compares and contrasts the approach
to PRA in the U.S. and European MNCs: its principal finding is
the large degree of similarity regarding the role and importance
of PRA in these corporations. It appears that MNCs based in different
countries tend to react and organize themselves in a similar
way when faced with a common, risky external political environment.
1990:
Ariel, A., Évaluation of Political Risk in a Shipping
Project", Maritime Policy and Management,
January 1, 1990.
Basek, John, "U.S. Firms Too Cautious About USSR/Eastern
Europe Business?" RMR, Fall 1990, p 4.
Blank, Stephen, "Assessing the Political Environment:
Ten Years Later," RMR, Fall 1990, pp 1-2.
Goddard, Scott, "Political Risk in International Capital
Budgeting", Managerial Finance, 1990.
Graham, Ann Blumberg, "Corporate Political Risk Assessment:
Yesterday and Today," RMR, Fall 1990, pp 2-3
Rogers, Jerry, "Political Risk Analysis: State of the
Art 1989," Cal Poly Scholar, Fall 1990, pp
49-51.
This paper reports on the state of the art of political risk
analysis, primarily in the United States, based largely on personal
interviews with practicing professionals. The research finds
that the profession as well as the field of political risk analysis
has been greatly decimated over the past three to four years
due to global business events, corporate restructuring in the
U.S., and the failure to demonstrate utility. It is unlikely
the field will ever support the number of professionals it did
in the past. Only a few highly specialized niche consulting firms
will survive.
Wagner, Daniel, "Why Political Risk Insurance Will Grow
in the 90s", Risk Management, October 1, 1990.
1989:
Alesina, Alberto, "External Debt, Capital Flight and
Political Risk", Journal of International Economics,
November 1, 1989.
Bulow, Jeremy and Kenneth Rogoff, "Sovereign Debt: Is
to Forgive to Forget?" American Economic Review,
1989, 79: pp 4350.
Frei, Daniel and Dieter Ruloff, Handbook of Foreign
Policy Analysis: Methods for Practical Application in Foreign
Policy Planning; Strategic Planning and Business Risk Assessment,
Dordrecht-Boston-London, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers,
1989. (George Middeldorp, Netherlands)
The book presents an overview of scientific things--aids for
those who must coordinate their daily activity with the international
environment and the "course of the world", in order
to improve the understanding of the international environment
and translate it into adequate policies. It is logically divided
into the following main sections: situation assessment, explanation,
forecasting, decision preparation and decision-making. Each chapter
is dedicated to a specific scientific method and has a standard
structure: task (purpose), basic idea, procedure (practical action,
illustrated by example), possible follow-ups, application, cost
and time required, and further reading. In the book both qualitative
and quantitative methods are dealt with. The explanation of the
various methods is done in such a way as to be accessible to
the non-specialist without any preliminary knowledge.
The main sections mentioned above are followed by sections on
the use of computers, guidelines for the selection and combination
of methods, technical details of some of the methods and, finally,
a bibliography. In their handbook the authors have chosen to
give objective descriptions of the methods and therefore do not
judge their scientific and practical value. Readers are therefore
advised to make a critical assessment themselves before introducing
a certain method e.g. by using specific literature to which they
find some references in the book's bibliography
Lawson, James C., "Political Risk Gets Riskier,"
Institutional Investor, Volume 23, Issue 11, October
1989, pp. 327332. (Alan D. Buss, student, AGSIM)
Insurers and companies alike have learned from the events in
China in 1989 even through a nation seems stable, it may not
be. Insurers are being much more careful when reviewing possible
policies than they were before.
Siegwart, Hans; Ivo Cayatas, and Julian Mahari, Chapter 7
"Individual Strategies for Managing Political Risk,"
Global Political Risk: Dynamic Managerial Strategies,
Helbing & Lichtenhahn, Frankfurt on Main, 1989, pp 7590.
(Thomas R. Nun, student, AGSIM)
The authors contend that political risks are manageable only
if:
they can be passed along: political risk insurance,
credit financing, governmental guarantees, risk-sensitive contractual
provisions, premium pricing strategies.
they can be absorbed by investor firm: the firm sets
aside sufficient resources to counter any losses or makes other
provisions to limit the impact of any specific overseas event
on the firm as a whole.
they can be avoided.
If in each of the above strategies they is "no satisfactory
guarantee that the company will be able to avoid catastrophes",
then the investment should be foregone. The authors make a compelling
argument that the size and bureaucratic "staleness"
of the firm play an important part, but nearly always overlooked,
role in the decision to proceed with an overseas equity investment.
1988:
Rogers, Jerry, ed., Global Risk Assessments: Issues,
Concepts and Applications, Book 3, Riverside, CA, Global
Risk Assessments, Inc., 1988.
1986:
Rogers, Jerry, ed., Global Risk Assessments: Issues,
Concepts and Applications, Book 2, Riverside, CA, Global
Risk Assessments, Inc., 1986
1985:
Andrews, Craig, "Structural Changes and the International
Minerals Industry," Association of Political Risk
Analysts Proceedings, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 2223,
1985, pp 6064F.
Fuld, Leonard M., "Collecting Competitor Information
in a Political World," Association of Political Risk
Analysts Proceedings, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 2223,
1985, pp 131139.
Warren, J. H., "The Place of Political Intelligence
in a Corporate Environment," Association of Political
Risk Analysts Proceedings, Toronto, Ontario, Canada,
May 2223, 1985, pp 28.
1984:
Saini, K. and P. Bates, "A Survey of the Quantitative
Approaches to Country Risk Analysis," Journal of Banking
and Finance, 1984, pp 34156.
1983:
Rogers, Jerry, ed., Global Risk Assessments: Issues,
Concepts and Applications, Book 1, Riveside, CA, Global
Risk Assessments, Inc., 1983.
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